Ocean carriers are rolling out new general rate increases and FAK levels for November, but analysts and forwarders say falling demand and ample capacity make it unlikely these hikes will stick, particularly on the transpacific trade.

Transpacific Rates Already Sliding

Drewry's World Container Index recorded its steepest weekly drop since June 2025 on the transpacific eastbound trade as the peak season wound down. The Shanghai-Los Angeles spot rate fell 6% week on week to $7,514 per 40ft, while Shanghai-New York dropped 5% to $9,631 per 40ft. Drewry pointed to easing US import demand, citing a National Retail Federation forecast of an 11% month-on-month decline in US ocean import volumes for November, which it said could add further downward pressure on rates.

Forwarders Describe a Market in Flux

Despite the rate index decline, some US forwarders reported a more stable week than the headline numbers suggest. West coast forwarder Freight Right said pricing carried over from the prior week, with improving space availability and more consistent vessel schedules. The firm said the pre-holiday peak is closing out and pricing has settled into a steady pattern on both coasts, though it expects China-to-US rates to stay broadly stable through the first half of November, with a possibility of modest declines given improving space and schedule reliability. Freight Right also noted that remaining urgent pre-holiday cargo is shifting to air freight, reducing the odds that the new general rate increase scheduled for November 1, ranging from $2,000 to $3,000 per 40ft depending on carrier, will hold.

Asia-Europe Shows Mixed Signals

On the Asia-Europe trade, the WCI was largely flat this week, extending a period of unexpected spot rate strength seen in October. The Shanghai-Rotterdam rate rose 1% to $3,686 per 40ft, while Shanghai-Genoa held steady at $4,151 per 40ft. New FAK levels were due to take effect November 1, with MSC targeting $4,500 per 40ft on Asia-North Europe and higher levels on Mediterranean routes, and CMA CGM aiming for similar increases. However, analyst firm Linerlytica said carriers are undermining their own rate hike efforts with persistent discounting, noting that Gemini carriers Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk were offering some of the lowest spot rates for early November shipments, prompting rivals to lower their own offers in response. Linerlytica described the November 1 increase on this trade as effectively failed.

Carriers Push Ahead With Further Increases

Even as the November 1 hikes struggle to gain traction, carriers have announced another round of FAK increases for November 15, with MSC and CMA CGM both targeting higher spot rates on Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean routes. This comes as the Asia-Europe contract tendering season is underway, with carriers seeking to push spot rates higher since they serve as a benchmark for annual rate negotiations. Drewry's capacity data showed four blanked sailings announced for the coming week, down from eight the previous week, and the firm said it remains uncertain whether the new increases will hold given available capacity and weak demand, with rates expected to stay stable in the near term.

What This Means for Shippers

For shippers and cargo owners, the weakening demand and carrier discounting suggest limited room for sustained rate increases in the near term, particularly on the transpacific trade where volumes are expected to fall heading into November. Those with flexibility on booking timing may find favorable spot rates as carriers compete for cargo, and improving space availability and schedule consistency could ease capacity concerns. On Asia-Europe routes, shippers negotiating annual contracts should watch closely, since carriers are using elevated spot rates as leverage in tendering discussions even as actual spot pricing remains under pressure from discounting. Tracking carrier-specific rate announcements and actual booking rates, rather than headline GRI or FAK figures alone, will be important for accurately forecasting costs and transit reliability in the coming weeks.

Sources: theloadstar.com