Container carriers are facing a significant build-up of new vessel capacity over the next three years, according to Drewry's Container Market Outlook, and the research firm says attempts by lines to play down the risk amount to little more than public messaging.

A Wave of New Ships

Drewry forecasts that supply-side capacity will grow by 8.8%, 12.1% and 10% over the coming three years. Simon Heaney, senior manager at Drewry Container Research, said these figures already account for scrapping, delivery delays and other measures carriers use to slow capacity growth. Newbuilding deliveries alone are expected to add 2.3 million teu in nominal capacity.

Carriers Downplaying the Risk

Heaney said major carriers are currently engaged in a public relations effort to minimise concerns about overcapacity. Following strong second-quarter earnings, several senior liner executives pointed to congestion and trade imbalances as reasons landside supply chains remain stretched, with little sign of easing in the near term. Drewry agrees that these disruptive factors are structurally embedded and will slow the shift from nominal to usable capacity, but argues that the sheer scale of new tonnage arriving will eventually outweigh them. "In our view, overcapacity is simply unavoidable," Heaney said.

Red Sea Returns Add to the Squeeze

Beyond newbuild deliveries, Drewry expects a further 2.6 million teu of capacity to return to the Suez Canal route as ships currently diverted around the Cape of Good Hope head back to Red Sea transits. The firm forecasts that 80% of this diverted tonnage will be back on the shorter route by February 2027. Heaney described carriers as "competitive prisoners": once some operators return to the Red Sea route to capture savings from shorter voyages and tighter network integrity, others are forced to follow to stay competitive.

Offsetting Factors Won't Be Enough

Some of the added capacity will be absorbed through other channels. Drewry points to declining port productivity (109,000 teu), idle vessels (204,000 teu), slow steaming (217,000 teu) and vessel demolitions (213,000 teu) as factors that will soak up part of the new supply. However, Heaney said these combined "debits" will not offset the overall gains in capacity. Collectively, he estimated they would reduce the net capacity deficit by only around 20% compared with conditions in 2026. Port and landside infrastructure, along with geopolitical disruptions, weather events, and industrial action at ports, will also influence how much of this new capacity actually becomes usable.

What This Means for Shippers

For shippers, importers and exporters, a sustained increase in available capacity typically points toward softer freight rates and more competition among carriers for cargo, assuming demand doesn't also surge. However, the report's emphasis on "structurally embedded" disruptions—congestion, port productivity issues, weather, and potential labour action—means transit times and schedule reliability may remain inconsistent even as more ships enter service. Shippers should watch for shifts in capacity deployment as carriers rebalance networks between the Cape of Good Hope and Red Sea routes, since this could affect transit times and port rotations on Asia-Europe trades in particular. Booking flexibility and close tracking of vessel schedules will remain important, as carriers adjust slow steaming, idling and scrapping decisions in response to the growing supply overhang. Those managing long-term contracts may want to factor in the likelihood of rate pressure as new capacity continues to enter the market over the next three years.

Sources: seatrade-maritime.com