Container shipping lines are returning to the Suez Canal route at a fast pace, even as security risks in the Red Sea persist. Industry analysts now expect a full-scale return to Suez transits by the first quarter of 2027, a major shift after nearly two years of Cape of Good Hope diversions triggered by Houthi attacks on shipping.

How Much Traffic Has Returned?

According to Bimco, weekly container ship capacity transiting the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 TEU during the first two weeks of October, more than half of the roughly 1,457,000 TEU recorded during the same period in 2023, before the diversions began. That marks a sharp rebound from the trough between early 2024 and mid-2026, when weekly transiting capacity averaged just 141,000 TEU, about 11% of 2023 levels. The Suez Canal Authority reported that 166 medium and ultra-large container vessels transited the canal in the third quarter of 2026, compared with only 16 vessels in the same quarter of 2025. Tonnage for large container vessels reached 29 million net tons in the latest quarter, up from 2.4 million net tons a year earlier. Consultant Linerlytica says more than 50 vessels of 4,000 TEU and above are now using the Red Sea route each week.

Which Carriers Are Shifting Back?

Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, OOCL and CMA CGM have already returned vessels to the Suez route, and COSCO has restored some services as well. All four major shipping alliances now offer regular westbound Asia-North Europe services via Suez, including the Premier Alliance's FE1 service and Gemini Cooperation routings, along with the OCEAN Alliance's FAL3/NEU5 and MSC's Lion/FE5 services. ONE and HMM are expected to be next, according to Linerlytica, leaving Evergreen, Yang Ming and Zim as the main holdouts still sailing via the Cape.

Why Are Carriers Returning Despite Ongoing Risk?

The security threat that originally pushed carriers away from the Red Sea has not gone away. Journal of Commerce reports that hostilities between Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia have escalated, including attacks on Riyadh's airport that left casualties, raising questions about whether the US could become more directly involved. Some industry sources suggest carriers may have received private assurances about safety, though this has not been confirmed. Drewry's analysis found that the direct cost advantage of sailing via Suez versus the Cape is modest, estimated at around $43 per slot, or roughly $1 million per round trip, not counting war-risk insurance premiums. Drewry argues the decision isn't really about a simple cost comparison, but reflects broader network, capacity and customer-service considerations, including shorter transit times, better vessel utilization, and the pressure of competitors already making the switch.

What This Means for European Ports

The Journal of Commerce reports that Europe's largest ports, Rotterdam and Antwerp-Bruges, are bracing for the possibility of a surge in vessel arrivals as more services shift away from the longer Cape of Good Hope route. Better schedule reliability from carriers will be important for these hubs to manage the change smoothly. Separately, Bimco estimates that the earlier shift to Cape routing had increased global container ship demand by roughly 10%, an effect that is now unwinding as ships return to the shorter Suez route. The full impact on the supply-demand balance is still unclear, partly because the return to Suez has coincided with port congestion in Asia, though that congestion is reported to have eased as factories resumed operations after the Golden Week holiday.

What It Means for Shippers and Cargo Owners

For shippers, the shift back to Suez should eventually mean shorter transit times on Asia-Europe routes as vessels return to the more direct path instead of sailing around southern Africa. However, the transition period may bring some uncertainty: schedule reliability could be tested as more vessels converge on Suez and European hub ports adjust to changing arrival patterns. On rates, Linerlytica notes that spot rates are under downward pressure as congestion eases and capacity freed up from longer Cape voyages enters the market, though carriers have still been trying to push spot rates higher in parts of the market. Given that the underlying security situation in the Red Sea remains unresolved and tensions are reportedly escalating, shippers moving cargo through this corridor should keep tracking vessel routings closely and build some flexibility into booking plans, as further diversions remain possible if the security picture worsens.

Sources: seatrade-maritime.com, maritime-executive.com, joc.com, joc.com