A wave of typhoons hitting major container ports in Asia has triggered one of the sharpest disruptions to global shipping schedules in years, according to new analysis from Sea-Intelligence. The consultancy estimates that 8.5% of the world's container fleet is currently tied up in delays, equal to about 3m TEU of capacity, roughly the size of the fifth-largest carrier's fleet.

What's Driving the Disruption?

Sea-Intelligence points to a continuing stream of typhoons affecting major Asian ports as the main cause. Schedule reliability dropped to just under 50% in August, following a sharp decline in July, with reliability falling 12.7% over the two months combined. The consultancy said this was one of only three periods since it began tracking data in 2011 with such a steep drop. Average delays for late-arriving vessels rose to 6.8 days, a level otherwise only seen during the worst stretches of the Covid-19 pandemic. Freightos has noted that congestion at origin ports in the Far East is being made worse as delays spread into transhipment hubs, and as carriers skip badly affected ports, shifting pressure elsewhere in their networks.

How Severe Is the Capacity Squeeze?

Between 2011 and 2019, delays typically absorbed an average of 2.2% of global fleet capacity. The current 8.5% figure is more than six percentage points above that baseline, a gap Sea-Intelligence says is significantly affecting the balance between supply and demand. Scheduled capacity data adds to the picture: Sea-Intelligence found Asia-North Europe deployment around Golden Week reached 1.5m TEU over four weeks, 27% higher than a year earlier and 60% above pre-pandemic averages. Much of that increase, however, reflects vessels bunching up due to delays rather than genuine new capacity being added.

Rates and Charter Markets React

The disruption is already showing up in freight rates. Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index has climbed to record levels, with the Shanghai-Laem Chabang route jumping 22% to $1,609 per 40-foot box and Shanghai-Jakarta up 12% to $2,300, as Golden Week demand collided with reduced effective capacity. Xeneta reports that Asia-US rates remain near pandemic-era highs. Charter rates are following a similar pattern, with Braemar's BOXi index hitting a 52-week high of 315.59 and the broker describing an extremely tight supply situation, with virtually no post-panamax or panamax tonnage available.

How Long Could This Last?

Sea-Intelligence looked at past disruptions for guidance. During the pandemic, capacity absorption peaked at 13.8% before falling to 3.6% over 16 months. During the Red Sea crisis, absorption peaked at 6.5% and eased to 3.7% within six months. Based on these historical recovery rates of about 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points a month, the consultancy estimates it could take seven to ten months to return to the low levels seen in June 2025, or six to eight months to get back to conditions at the end of 2025. That timeline suggests the disruption is unlikely to be fully resolved before the Chinese New Year cargo rush in February 2027. Freightos has similarly warned that backlogs could persist beyond Golden Week and into October, while HSBC expects congestion to keep constraining effective capacity through Golden Week, with delays gradually spreading toward Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent.

What This Means for Shippers

For shippers and cargo owners, this points to continued unpredictability in transit times, particularly on intra-Asia and Asia-US routes where rates are already elevated. Booking further ahead and building extra buffer time into supply chain planning is advisable, especially for cargo destined to move ahead of the Chinese New Year peak. Freight forwarders and importers negotiating 2027 contracts should factor in the possibility that current disruption will not fully clear before then. Close tracking of vessel schedules and port conditions will be important in the coming months, as delays continue to shift between ports and trade lanes rather than resolving quickly.

Sources: theloadstar.com, splash247.com